How Aging Leads to Chronic Disease: A Two-Stage Model

Aging (senescence) is characterized by development of diverse senescent pathologies and diseases, leading eventually to death.”

Aging has long been explained in different ways. One traditional view is that it results from the gradual accumulation of molecular damage over time. Another perspective, based on evolutionary theory, suggests that natural selection strongly protects health during youth and reproductive years but becomes less effective later in life. As a result, biological effects that appear in older age may persist because they have little impact on reproduction. 

Over the past two decades, researchers have also explored the idea that biological programs beneficial early in life may continue operating later in ways that become harmful. Processes that once supported growth, repair, and reproduction may, with time, contribute to chronic disease.

A recent review article, titled “Aging as a multifactorial disorder with two stages,” published in Aging-US by researchers at University College London and Queen Mary University of London, brings these different perspectives together into a unified model, to propose a broader explanation of how aging-related diseases develop. The review appears in a special issue honoring the late scientist Misha Blagosklonny, whose theoretical work on programmatic aging significantly influenced the field. 

The Two-Stage Model

The review by David Gems, Alexander Carver from University College London, and Yuan Zhao from Queen Mary University of London, brings together evidence from evolutionary biology, laboratory research, and human disease. It argues that most diseases associated with aging are multifactorial, meaning they arise from multiple interacting causes rather than a single trigger. The authors describe aging as a process that often develops in two main stages.

The first occurs earlier in life and involves disruptions in normal biological functions. It can include infections, physical injuries, environmental exposures, or DNA mutations. In many cases, the body repairs the damage or contains it effectively. However, not all disruptions are fully eliminated. Some remain in tissues in a controlled or dormant state without causing immediate symptoms.

The second stage takes place later in life, when normal age-related biological changes alter the body’s internal environment. Immune function tends to decline, inflammatory activity may increase, and tissue repair processes shift. Cells may enter a state known as senescence, in which they stop dividing but release signaling molecules that influence surrounding tissues. According to the review, these later-life changes can weaken the body’s ability to contain earlier disruptions. As a result, previously silent injuries or latent conditions may begin to develop into clinically recognizable disease.

In this model, aging is not explained only by accumulated damage or exclusively by genetic programming. Instead, disease emerges from the interaction between earlier disruptions and later biological changes.

Evidence from Laboratory and Human Studies

Part of the conceptual foundation for this model comes from studies in the roundworm Caenorhabditis elegans. In this organism, early mechanical damage to tissue can later contribute to fatal infections in old age, illustrating how early disruption and later biological change may interact. The authors suggest that similar patterns may occur in humans.

Several human conditions also fit this model. In shingles, the virus responsible for chickenpox remains dormant in nerve cells after childhood infection and may reactivate decades later as immune control weakens. Tuberculosis provides another example, as latent infections can become active in older age when immune defenses decline.

Osteoarthritis is more common in individuals who experienced joint injury earlier in life. Although the joint may initially recover, age-related changes in cartilage and surrounding tissues may allow earlier structural damage to progress. Traumatic brain injury in youth has also been associated with increased risk of dementia later in life, suggesting that early injury may interact with aging processes.

Cancer risk rises sharply with age as well. While genetic mutations accumulate over time, changes in the aging tissue environment, including altered inflammatory signaling and the presence of senescent cells, may increase the likelihood that mutated cells progress into tumors.

Across these examples, the recurring theme is the interaction between earlier contained disruption and later biological vulnerability.

Implications for Prevention and Intervention

The authors outline two broad approaches to reduce age-related disease. One approach focuses on preventing or minimizing early disruptions, for example through vaccination, injury prevention, and reduction of harmful environmental exposures. The other aims to modify later-life biological processes that contribute to loss of containment, including pathways involved in inflammation or excessive cellular activity.

At present, the most reliable and widely implemented measures in humans focus on preventing early disruptions. Interventions that directly target fundamental aging processes remain under investigation and require further research to establish their safety and effectiveness.

Future Perspectives and Conclusion

The two-stage model does not claim to provide a complete explanation of aging. Rather, it offers a structured model for understanding how multiple causes may combine over time to produce late-life disease. By integrating evolutionary theory, laboratory findings, and clinical observations, the review clarifies how early-life events and later biological changes may interact.

This perspective suggests that aging is neither purely passive decline nor solely genetically programmed deterioration. Instead, it may reflect a lifelong interaction between accumulated disruptions and evolving biological conditions. Continued research will be needed to determine how broadly this model applies and how it might guide future efforts to reduce the burden of chronic disease in older adults.

Click here to read the full review published in Aging-US.

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Aging-US is indexed by PubMed/Medline (abbreviated as “Aging (Albany NY)”), PubMed CentralWeb of Science: Science Citation Index Expanded (abbreviated as “Aging‐US” and listed in the Cell Biology and Geriatrics & Gerontology categories), Scopus (abbreviated as “Aging” and listed in the Cell Biology and Aging categories), Biological Abstracts, BIOSIS Previews, EMBASE, META (Chan Zuckerberg Initiative) (2018-2022), and Dimensions (Digital Science).

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How Aging Leads to Disease: New Two-Stage Model Explains Age-Related Illness

“Here we propose a general account of how different determinants of aging can interact to generate late-life disease.”

BUFFALO, NY — January 20, 2026 — A new review was published in Volume 17, Issue 12 of Aging-US on December 30, 2025, titled “Aging as a multifactorial disorder with two stages.”

“This article is a contribution to the special issue of Aging celebrating the life and work of Misha Blagosklonny (more formally, Mikhail Vladimirovich Blagosklonny), who died in October 2024.”

In this review, David Gems and Alexander Carver from University College London, together with Yuan Zhao from Queen Mary University of London, present a new theoretical model to explain how aging leads to the development of chronic diseases. Drawing on evolutionary theory and biological research, the authors propose that aging is driven by a combination of early-life damage and harmful genetic activity in later life. This framework helps explain why diseases such as cancer, arthritis, and infections often appear in old age and offers insight into how they might be prevented.

Aging is the biggest risk factor for most chronic diseases, but the biological reasons for this association are still debated. The authors address this by introducing a two-stage model. In the first stage, individuals experience disruptions early in life, such as infections, injuries, or genetic mutations. Although the body can often contain or repair this damage, it does not fully eliminate it. In the second stage, which begins in later life, normal genetic processes begin to act in ways that are no longer beneficial. These late-life changes weaken the body’s ability to contain earlier damage, allowing it to develop into disease.

The review emphasizes that aging is a multifactorial process, shaped by many interacting causes rather than a single underlying mechanism. The model suggests that early-life disruptions and later-life genetic activity work together to drive age-related diseases. For example, dormant viruses can re-emerge as infections like shingles due to weakened immunity in older adults. Similarly, injuries to joints in youth can lead to osteoarthritis as tissues change with age. Inherited mutations may also remain silent for decades before contributing to conditions such as cancer or fibrosis later in life.

This two-stage model builds on long-standing ideas from evolutionary biology, particularly the theory that aging occurs because natural selection has less influence in later life. The authors also draw on studies in the roundworm Caenorhabditis elegans, where early mechanical damage can lead to fatal infections in old age, suggesting similar patterns may occur in humans.

Overall, this review presents a new framework for understanding how different causes of aging interact over time. By identifying two key stages, early-life damage and late-life genetic activity, it highlights potential strategies for promoting healthier aging through prevention and targeted intervention.

Paper DOIhttps://doi.org/10.18632/aging.206339

Corresponding author: David Gems – [email protected]

Keywords: aging, C. elegans, disease, hyperfunction, multifactorial model

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